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The Fed aims to keep inflation at 2% over the longer run. Meanwhile, among the 20 countries that use the euro, annual consumer price inflation has slowed steadily since the start of the year. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said earlier this month that she would favor a rate hike “should progress on inflation stall or even reverse.”So why does the United States appear to have a bigger inflation problem than Europe? Some economists argue there isn’t actually much daylight between the US and European rates of inflation, pointing to a quirk in the US measures. The measure is designed to track inflation in the real estate market while accounting for the fact that most Americans own their homes.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Paul Donovan, Simon MacAdam, , MacAdam, ” Carsten Brzeski, Janet Yellen, Jim Watson, Brzeski, , ” Davide Oneglia Organizations: London CNN, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, PCE, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics, ING, CNN, Monetary Fund, Washington, Reuters, Getty, , ECB, Lombard Locations: United States, Europe, Centreville , Maryland, AFP, Russia, Ukraine
Inflation in the 20-nation euro zone eased to 2.4% in March, according to flash figures published on Wednesday, boosting expectations for interest rate cuts to begin in the summer. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the rate would hold steady against the previous month at 2.6%. The core rate of inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, cooled from 3.1% to 2.9%, also coming in below expectations. Markets expect the euro zone's central bank will begin lowering borrowing costs in June — a position reflected in the recent messaging of ECB decision-makers. "Inflation has declined despite a jump in energy inflation, and a boost from an early Easter.
Persons: European Central Bank —, Price, Robert Holzmann, Carsten Brzeski, Kamil Kovar, Kovar Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, ECB, ING, Moody's Locations: Rome, Italy, France, Spain, Germany, Austrian
The bank also keeps a close eye on core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices. That annual figure dropped to 3.1 from 3.3 percent, but it is still significantly above the headline number. In Spain, the annual rate dropped to 2.9 percent from 3.5 percent in January. Italy and Latvia had the lowest inflation rates, below 1 percent. Bottom Line: It’s all about energy prices.
Persons: ” Carsten Brzeski Organizations: ING Locations: Central, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Latvia, Austria, Croatia, Estonia
Can Germany’s sputtering economy be revived in 2024?
  + stars: | 2024-02-10 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +11 min
Europe’s biggest economy shrank last year for the first time since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. And the outlook isn’t much brighter: the International Monetary Fund predicts that Germany will be the slowest-growing major economy in 2024, eking out an increase of just 0.5%. “Germany needs a fundamental economic transformation,” Marcel Fratzcher, president of the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin, told CNN. Carsten Koall/Getty ImagesHomegrown troublesAlongside an external environment that has become more hostile to Germany’s outward-facing economy, the country’s internal political climate has worsened. Businesses such as these, which can find new markets and applications for their know-how, may hold the key to reviving Germany’s moribund economy.
Persons: What’s, ” Marcel Fratzcher, , Carsten Brzeski, Jens Schlueter, Constanze Stelzenmuller, Christian Lindner, Olaf Scholz, Robert Habeck, Carsten Koall, Michael Probst, Karl Haeusgen, ” Sebastian Shukla, Chris Stern Organizations: London CNN — Trains, Lufthansa, International Monetary Fund, European Union, European Commission, German Institute for Economic Research, CNN, ING, Brookings Institution, Volkswagen, Biden, Free Democratic Party, Social Democratic Party and, Green Party, Deutsche, LinkedIn, Investors, SAP, chipmaker Infineon, Intel, MAN Energy Solutions, Germany’s Machinery, Equipment Manufacturers Association Locations: Europe’s, Germany, Ukraine, Berlin, Europe, China, Zwickau, United States, Russia, , Japan, masse, Frankfurt, , Hamburg, Jungheinrich, Augsburg, Munich, Esbjerg, Denmark
FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — Cutting interest rates too soon could threaten Europe’s progress in battling the inflation that has ravaged the economy, the head of the European Central Bank said Wednesday amid widespread speculation that the bank soon will lower rates from record highs. But higher prices have spread through the economy in the form of high prices for services and higher wages. Meanwhile, sluggish economic growth and the impact of higher interest rates on economic activity have sparked bets on rate cuts. Higher rates are the typical antidote to high inflation because they make it more expensive to borrow and buy things, reducing demand for goods. “The first question for next week's European Central Bank meeting is how the bank will react to current market pricing,” Brzeski wrote in a preview of the meeting.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Carsten Brzeski, ” Brzeski, Organizations: European Central Bank, Bloomberg, ECB, U.S . Federal, Wall Street, Union, ING, Central Bank Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Davos, Switzerland, Israel, Europe, Ukraine
It's a far cry from the peak of 10.6% in October 2022 as an energy crisis left Europe's households and businesses struggling to make ends meet. The new figure is close to the European Central Bank's inflation target of 2% following a rapid series of interest rate hikes dating to summer 2022. Energy prices plunged 11.5% from November 2022. Meanwhile, the larger eurozone economy has stalled this year, even shrinking 0.1% in the July-to-September quarter, according to Eurostat. ___This story has been corrected to show that the eurozone economy shrank 0.1% in the third quarter, not grew by that amount.
Persons: , Andrew Kenningham, Christine Lagarde, ” Lagarde, That's, upended, ” Carsten Brzeski Organizations: Eurostat, ECB, Capital Economics, Energy, OECD, ING Locations: Europe, Germany, Europe's, Russia, Moscow, Ukraine
A constitutional court ruling on Nov. 15 against a budget manoeuvre to get around Germany's "debt brake" threw the financial plans of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition into disarray. "As I have long been saying, we must fear that the debt brake becomes ever more a brake on the future," said Berlin mayor Kai Wegner on social media platform X. "The debt brake was implemented when Europe had a debt sustainability issue and Germany wanted to lead by example," he said. "With the debt brake as it is, we have voluntarily tied our hands behind our backs and are going into a boxing match," he said. The Greens' campaign programme ahead of the last election included debt brake reform to allow for greater investments.
Persons: Olaf Scholz, Robert Habeck, Christian Lindner, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Reiner Haseloff, Haseloff, Kai Wegner, Friedrich Merz, Carsten Brzeski, Roderich Kiesewetter, Stefan Marschall, Andreas Rinke, Sarah Marsh, Matthias Williams, Holger Hansen, Nick Macfie Organizations: Climate, Finance, BERLIN, U.S, Intel, Reuters, AAA, Christian Democratic Union, CDU, Christian Social Union, CSU, Berlin, Free Democrats, Social Democrats, Greens, ING, SPD, University of Duesseldorf, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Europe's, Ukraine, Saxony, Anhalt, United States, Bavarian, Federal, Germany, Europe, France, Italy, Spain, China
Europe's largest economy shrank 0.1% in the July-to-September quarter as inflation eroded people's willingness to spend, Germany's statistics office confirmed Friday. The downbeat figures come as the country's budget crisis raises the possibility of deep spending cuts next year. A court ruled last week that previous spending violated constitutional limits on deficits, forcing Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government to put off a final vote on next year's spending plan. The court said the move violated rules in the constitution that limit new borrowing to 0.35% of annual economic output. He termed the uptick in the Ifo survey of business managers as “a bottoming out” rather than a rebound.
Persons: Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, quarrelsome, Christian Lindner, , Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Finance, ING Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Russia, Ukraine
German budget crisis: The economy is structurally weak, ING says
  + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGerman budget crisis: The economy is structurally weak, ING saysCarsten Brzeski of ING says "it needs a lot of structural transitions, but that is something the constitutional debt brake has not foreseen."
Persons: Carsten Brzeski Organizations: ING
With some German property developers filing for insolvency, construction activity has dropped over a third from a year ago. That bleak outlook was despite the government recently announcing a 45 billion euro ($47 billion) support package for the property sector and measures to encourage house building, including tax incentives. With overall economic activity expected to remain weak over the coming quarters, it could take a while for the property sector to recover. The euro zone's commercial property sector could also struggle for years, posing a threat to the banks and investors who financed it, the ECB said recently. The median view of 12 property experts forecast average home rental prices to rise 4.0% or more until 2026.
Persons: Lisi Niesner, Sebastian Schnejdar, Carsten Brzeski, Indradip Ghosh, Purujit Arun, Rahul Trivedi, Sarupya Ganguly, Ross Finley, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, ING, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, BENGALURU
German budget crisis will haunt economy for years
  + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The German government is working hard to demonstrate the foolishness of the country’s iron-clad ban on large budget deficits. The budget crisis will cripple the economy for years to come, for three reasons. The debt brake, which limits structural budget deficits to 0.35% of GDP, has only been suspended for this year’s budget. Public net investment has been negative for 20 years, Marcel Fratzscher, head of the German Institute for Economic Research, has pointed out. The country is not on the cusp of a debt crisis.
Persons: Carsten Brzeski, That’s, Marcel Fratzscher, Christian Lindner, Lindner, George Hay, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, Constitutional, Organisation for Economic Co, Development, ING, German Economic Institute, Public, German Institute for Economic Research, German, Germany’s, Thomson Locations: Europe, Berlin
German budget crisis tests limits of its 'debt brake'
  + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The ruling has sent budget talks into disarray and sparked calls within Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition to suspend a constitutionally enshrined "debt brake" that sets legal limits on borrowing. WHAT IS THE DEBT BRAKE AND WHY WAS IT INTRODUCED? HAS GERMANY SUSPENDED ITS DEBT BRAKE BEFORE? Some analysts say the debt brake is ripe for reform and a more flexible fiscal policy would let governments take on more debt to fund much-needed investments. The government is still weighing options, including suspending the debt brake or curtailing spending.
Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Angela Merkel's, Christian Lindner, Carsten Brzeski, Philippa Sigl, Robert Habeck, Riham Alkousaa, Holger Hansen, Matthias Williams, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Finance, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, GERMANY, Ukraine
Underscoring the frustration, Economy Minister Robert Habeck, a member of the pro-spending Greens, called the verdict "a huge blow to industrial policy". Speaking to parliament, Habeck warned the court ruling put at risk support for the steel sector, which is counting on subsidies to decarbonise and stay competitive. Finance Minister Christian Lindner meanwhile said it was too early to discuss the consequences of the court ruling. "The steel industry alone can contribute to reducing a third of total industrial emissions - and thus has enormous leverage to save millions of tons of CO2 in the coming years." "The political bottom line is that many coalition disputes will reopen as serious budget constraints kick in.
Persons: Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Robert Habeck, BERLIN, Wednesday's, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Habeck, Yesenn, DBRS Morningstar, hawkish Lindner, Lindner, Bernhard Osburg, Carsten Brzeski, Eurointelligence, Maria Martinez, Christian Kraemer, Andreas Rinke, Markus Wacket, Tom Kaeckenhoff, Matthias Williams, Alexandra Hudson, Susan Fenton Organizations: Finance, Climate, Economy, Greens, CHANGE, Budget, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: United States, Berlin, Germany
Fast forward two years, and German housebuilding looks like it's collapsing, putting pressure on both his hard-to-reach goal, but also the overall economy of the country. Over 22% of companies surveyed reported the cancellation of residential construction projects in Germany in October, a new record high. Expectations for the residential construction industry fell to what the Ifo described as an "exceptional low." "Things continue to go from bad to worse in Germany's construction sector. But it's also the jobs market that could be impacted by troubles in the homebuilding sector, Brzeski noted.
Persons: Soeren, Germany's Olaf Scholz, , Cyrus de la Rubia, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Klaus Wohlrabe, Wohlrabe, it's Organizations: Getty, Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Hamburg Commercial Bank, German Federal, Office, ING, CNBC, European Central Bank, ECB, European Commission Locations: downtown Wittenberg, Germany, Hamburg
A steel worker of ThyssenKrupp stands amid sparks of raw iron coming from a blast furnace at a ThyssenKrupp steel factory in Duisburg, western Germany, November 14, 2022. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBERLIN, Nov 7 (Reuters) - German industrial production fell more than expected in September, data showed on Tuesday, as a recent slump in incoming orders took its toll on production. There are few figures that summarise the state of the German economy as well as industrial production, Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank, said. "The industry-heavy German economy is dependent on production in order to achieve reasonable economic growth rates," he said, noting that industrial production this year has been weak. "Even though there isn’t any hard data for the fourth quarter yet, recent developments have clearly increased the risk that the German economy will end the year in recession," Brzeski said.
Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Thomas Gitzel, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Maria Martinez, Miranda Murray, Rachel More Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, VP Bank, ING, Thomson Locations: ThyssenKrupp, Duisburg, Germany
Looking ahead, the ongoing pass-through of the European Central Bank's monetary policy tightening, still no reversal of the inventory cycle and new geopolitical uncertainties will continue weighing on the German economy, Brzeski said. "The German economy looks set to remain in the twilight zone between minor contraction and stagnation not only this year but also next year," Brzeski said. The contraction in the third quarter is not seen as an outlier as Commerzbank expects the German economy to contract again in the winter half-year. Economists will pay close attention to national inflation data from Germany and Spain, as they are published one day before the euro zone inflation data release. Euro zone inflation is expected to ease to 3.2% in October from 4.3% in September, according to economists polled by Reuters.
Persons: Arnd, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, optimists, Joerg Kraemer, Claus Vistesen, Maria Martinez, Miranda Murray, Rachel More, Miral Fahmy, Angus MacSwan Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Gross, Reuters, ING, European Central, Macroeconomics, Thomson Locations: Konstanz, Germany, Spain
In Europe, inflation peaked at a painful 10.6% in October for the 20 countries that use the euro currency as Russia's war in Ukraine took a toll. But with inflation now down to 4.3%, analysts expect the ECB to hold off on more hikes during its meeting in Athens. Political Cartoons View All 1218 ImagesSurveys of purchasing managers by S&P Global indicate that economic activity fell in October. Its biggest economy, Germany, is forecast by the International Monetary Fund to shrink by 0.5% this year, making it the world's worst performing major economy. “The ECB won’t be in any rush to take further action,” said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING bank.
Persons: hasn't, , Carsten Brzeski, Christine Lagarde, aren't Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Union, ABN Amro, International Monetary Fund, IMF, , ECB won’t, ING Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Israel, Europe, Ukraine, Athens, Frankfurt, Russia, East, Iran
ECB chief Christine Lagarde may stick with the high-for-longer mantra that has pushed up long-dated bond yields. A weakening economy meanwhile suggests the need for further tightening is limited but the ECB is likely to push back against rate-cut speculation. ECB chief economist Philip Lane says the ECB will need time, possibly until next spring, before it can be confident that inflation is coming down. The ECB expects headline inflation to ease to 3.2% in 2024 from an average of 5.6% in 2023. Oil price moves, inflation outlook shifts4/ What does the ECB do if things go wrong with Italy?
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Johanna Geron, Francis Yared, Philip Lane, Lagarde, PEPP, Reinhard Cluse, Chris Jeffrey, Cluse, ING's Brzeski, Dhara Ranasinghe, Stefano Rebaudo, Naomi Rovnick, Susan Fenton Organizations: European Central Bank, Parliament's, Economic, Monetary Affairs, REUTERS, ECB, Deutsche Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, UBS, Reuters, Legal, General Investment Management, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Brussels, Belgium, Europe, United States, Italy, Germany
REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummary Industrial output down 0.2% in Aug vs down 0.1% forecastEconomists expect further contraction in coming monthsBERLIN, Oct 9 (Reuters) - German industrial output shrank in August for the fourth consecutive month, the federal statistics office said on Monday, an indication that the sector remains under serious pressure, stoking recession fears. Industrial production fell slightly more than expected in August by 0.2% compared to the previous month. The further drop in German industrial production in August was better than it looked as it was driven by volatile components, said Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics. However, she continued to expect high interest rates and falling demand to lead to a further contraction in German industrial output in the coming months. "Thin order books despite last week's increase, and high inventories all indicate that German industrial production will continue moving sideways rather than gaining momentum anytime soon," ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski said.
Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Franziska Palmas, Destatis, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Friederike Heine, Maria Martinez, Ozan Ergenay, Gerry Doyle, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: ThyssenKrupp, Duisburg, Germany, BERLIN, Europe, Palmas
Germany risks letting a good crisis go to waste
  + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
Germany, the European Union’s largest economy and its traditional growth engine, is headed towards a contraction this year. Exports account for more than half of Germany’s GDP, compared to just a third in France and 37% in Italy, according to the World Bank. Germany’s growth potential is estimated at an annual 0.7% over the medium term by the Scope rating agency, about half the euro zone average. Exempting net public investment from the debt brake rule would help to reverse years of underspending. Unless they do, Europe’s leading economy risks letting a good crisis go to waste.
Persons: , Hubertus Bardt, Germany’s, Carsten Brzeski, Oliver Rakau, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner’s, Sebastian Dullien, Scholz, Destatis, Francesco Guerrera, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, World Bank, EU, International Monetary Fund, Reuters Graphics Reuters, German Economic Institute, ING, Oxford Economics, BASF, Finance, Christian Democrats, Thomson Locations: Germany, Berlin, France, Italy, China –, Spain, Weimar Republic, China, Ukraine
REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBERLIN, Sept 28 (Reuters) - German inflation fell in September to its lowest level since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, signalling what could be the beginning of the end for the high inflation that has weighed heavily on Europe's largest economy. Germany's core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, fell to 4.6% year-on-year from 5.5% in August. Meanwhile, five economic institutes predict Germany's economy will shrink by 0.6% this year, as rising interest rates take their toll on investment and still high inflation depresses consumption. The ECB is keeping a close eye on euro zone inflation data, with September's reading due to be published on Friday. Spain earlier reported a 3.2% harmonised inflation rate for September.
Persons: Fabian Bimmer, Ralph Solveen, ING's Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Maria Martinez, Miranda Murray, Friederike Heine, Kirsten Donovan, Alison Williams Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Union, Reuters, ECB, Central, Thomson Locations: Hamburg, Russia, Ukraine, Spain
European markets opened lower Monday as investors reflected on a spate of central bank decisions last week and the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was down 0.3% in early trade, with all sectors in negative territory. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank opted to pause their interest rate hiking cycles last week, in contrast to the "dovish hike" delivered by the European Central Bank on Sept. 14. Elsewhere, U.S. stock futures edged higher in overnight trading, set to enter the last week of trading in September with big losses. Stocks stateside have struggled this month as the Federal Reserve signaled higher interest rates for longer, sending bond yields rising.
Persons: Carsten Brzeski Organizations: Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, European Central Bank, ING, CNBC, Stocks, Federal Reserve
U.K. pauseThe Bank of England opted to pause interest rate moves after 14 straight hikes, keeping its main policy rate at 5.25%. The decline came despite interest rate hikes generally boosting the value of a currency. Scandinavian inflationIn northern Europe, Norway and Sweden opted for rate hikes on Thursday and suggested that further tightening could be ahead. Norway's headline inflation rate was 4.8% in August, with core inflation at 6.3%. The Norges Bank forecast now indicates a policy rate of 4.5% through 2024, up from the current 4.25%.
Persons: Bank of England Andrew Bailey, BoE, Alastair Grant, ALASTAIR GRANT, Carsten Brzeski, BOE, Andrew Bailey, Paul Dales, Simon French, Panmure Gordon, Thomas Jordan, Jordan, Ida Wolden Bache, Bache Organizations: Bank of England, The Bank of England, Getty, Afp, ING, CNBC, of England, Capital Economics, U.S . Federal, HSBC, Panmure, Swiss National Bank, European Central Bank, ECB, U.S, Norway's Norges Bank, Norges Bank Locations: London, U.K, Paul, Switzerland, Swiss, Europe, Norway, Sweden, Norway's
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks to the media following the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, July 27, 2023. "It's such a close call between the pause and the rate hike," said ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski. Traders are torn but favour an ECB pause, pricing in around a 40% chance of a hike. For many economists, one thing is clear: if the ECB has further tightening to deliver, September is likely its last chance. Even the hawks, keeping a hike on the table, say fresh ECB projections on Thursday are key to the decision.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Reinhard Cluse, Mario Centeno, Isabel Schnabel, Austria's Robert Holzmann, Iain Stealey, Philip Lane, Kaspar Hense, Yoruk Bahceli, Stefano Rebaudo, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, Central Bank, Traders, UBS, JPMorgan Asset Management, Reuters, ING, BlueBay Asset Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Italy
The US dollar is king again. Here’s why
  + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
London CNN —The US dollar is enjoying its longest winning streak in nearly nine years. The rally comes after months of volatility, fueled by concerns that the dollar may be losing its status as the world’s reserve currency. “Rumors of the US dollar’s demise continue to be greatly exaggerated,” James Athey, investment director at Abrdn, an asset manager, told CNN. Higher interest rates tend to boost the value of a country’s currency by attracting more foreign capital, as investors anticipate making bigger returns. “The US economy continues to surprise to the upside,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomic research at ING, told CNN.
Persons: ” James Athey, ” Athey, ” Carsten Brzeski, ” Brzeski, Russ Mould, AJ Bell, Athanasios Vamvakidis, Sheldon Cooper, , ” Alex Cohen Organizations: London CNN, CNN, Federal Reserve, ING, US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of America Global Research, People’s Bank of Locations: Saudi Arabia, United States, China, Europe, Germany, Russia, People’s Bank of China
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